Copa Libertadores · Semifinals · 2026
What happened
Fluminense 1–2 Palmeiras.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
FLUDrawPAL
expected goals
0.98–1.28
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Model favorite landed — priced 43% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
FLU ↓PAL →
012340
10
13
9
4
1
110
13
8
4
1
25
6
4
2
1
32
2
1
1
0
40
1
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
FLU
ATT XG-0.90
DEF XGA+1.07
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
PAL
ATT XG+1.37
DEF XGA+0.99
FORM+1.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG