Copa Libertadores · Semifinals · 2026
What happened
Estudiantes de La Plata 0–0 Flamengo.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
EDLDrawFLA
expected goals
0.72–1.52
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 27% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
EDL ↓FLA →
012340
11
16
12
6
2
18
12
9
4
2
23
4
3
2
1
31
1
1
0
0
40
0
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
EDL
ATT XG-0.50
DEF XGA+1.61
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
FLA
ATT XG+1.22
DEF XGA+2.80
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG