◆
MPFC
⚙
WED, OCT 21
Europa League · League phase · 2026-27
RS v SP
Recognise RB Salzburg’s players →Recognise Sparta Prague’s players →
RB Salzburg›
vs
Thu, Dec 10 · 08:00 PM UTC
Sparta Prague›
What is at stake
Europa League connects clubs from different domestic leagues.

Check the phase before reading the score: league-phase points, two-leg aggregate scores and one-match knockouts create different incentives.

Model view
14%
17%
69%
RSDrawSP
expected goals
1.13–2.62
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
RS ↓SP →
012340
2
6
8
7
5
1
3
7
9
8
5
2
2
4
5
5
3
3
1
1
2
2
1
4
0
0
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
RS
ATT XG-0.87
DEF XGA-0.91
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
SP
ATT XG+1.93
DEF XGA+0.86
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG
Europa League · League phase · 2026-27
RS v SP
Recognise RB Salzburg’s players →Recognise Sparta Prague’s players →
RB Salzburg›
vs
Thu, Dec 10 · 08:00 PM UTC
Sparta Prague›
What is at stake
Europa League connects clubs from different domestic leagues.

Check the phase before reading the score: league-phase points, two-leg aggregate scores and one-match knockouts create different incentives.

Model view
14%
17%
69%
RSDrawSP
expected goals
1.13–2.62
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
RS ↓SP →
012340
2
6
8
7
5
1
3
7
9
8
5
2
2
4
5
5
3
3
1
1
2
2
1
4
0
0
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
RS
ATT XG-0.87
DEF XGA-0.91
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
SP
ATT XG+1.93
DEF XGA+0.86
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG