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MPFC
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WED, OCT 21
Europa League · League phase · 2026-27
TH v SSG
Recognise TSG Hoffenheim’s players →Recognise SK Sturm Graz’s players →
TSG Hoffenheim›
vs
Thu, Nov 26 · 08:00 PM UTC
SK Sturm Graz›
What is at stake
Europa League connects clubs from different domestic leagues.

Check the phase before reading the score: league-phase points, two-leg aggregate scores and one-match knockouts create different incentives.

Model view
63%
24%
13%
THDrawSSG
expected goals
1.71–0.61
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
TH ↓SSG →
012340
10
6
2
0
0
1
17
10
3
1
0
2
14
9
3
1
0
3
8
5
2
0
0
4
4
2
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
TH
ATT XG+0.29
DEF XGA-0.49
FORM-1.00
AVAIL0.00
SSG
ATT XG-2.19
DEF XGA+0.63
FORM-0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG
Europa League · League phase · 2026-27
TH v SSG
Recognise TSG Hoffenheim’s players →Recognise SK Sturm Graz’s players →
TSG Hoffenheim›
vs
Thu, Nov 26 · 08:00 PM UTC
SK Sturm Graz›
What is at stake
Europa League connects clubs from different domestic leagues.

Check the phase before reading the score: league-phase points, two-leg aggregate scores and one-match knockouts create different incentives.

Model view
63%
24%
13%
THDrawSSG
expected goals
1.71–0.61
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
TH ↓SSG →
012340
10
6
2
0
0
1
17
10
3
1
0
2
14
9
3
1
0
3
8
5
2
0
0
4
4
2
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
TH
ATT XG+0.29
DEF XGA-0.49
FORM-1.00
AVAIL0.00
SSG
ATT XG-2.19
DEF XGA+0.63
FORM-0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG