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MPFC
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WED, OCT 21
Europa League · League phase · 2026-27
US v LP
Recognise Union St.-Gilloise’s players →Recognise Lech Poznan’s players →
Union St.-Gilloise›
vs
Thu, Nov 26 · 05:45 PM UTC
Lech Poznan›
What is at stake
Europa League connects clubs from different domestic leagues.

Check the phase before reading the score: league-phase points, two-leg aggregate scores and one-match knockouts create different incentives.

Model view
92%
1%
USDrawLP
expected goals
3.57–0.44
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
US ↓LP →
012340
2
1
0
0
0
1
6
3
1
0
0
2
12
5
1
0
0
3
14
6
1
0
0
4
12
5
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
US
ATT XG-0.10
DEF XGA+0.59
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
LP
ATT XG-2.32
DEF XGA-5.15
FORM-0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG
Europa League · League phase · 2026-27
US v LP
Recognise Union St.-Gilloise’s players →Recognise Lech Poznan’s players →
Union St.-Gilloise›
vs
Thu, Nov 26 · 05:45 PM UTC
Lech Poznan›
What is at stake
Europa League connects clubs from different domestic leagues.

Check the phase before reading the score: league-phase points, two-leg aggregate scores and one-match knockouts create different incentives.

Model view
92%
1%
USDrawLP
expected goals
3.57–0.44
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
US ↓LP →
012340
2
1
0
0
0
1
6
3
1
0
0
2
12
5
1
0
0
3
14
6
1
0
0
4
12
5
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
US
ATT XG-0.10
DEF XGA+0.59
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
LP
ATT XG-2.32
DEF XGA-5.15
FORM-0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG