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MPFC
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WED, OCT 21
Europa League · League phase · 2026-27
CV v US
Recognise Celta Vigo’s players →Recognise Union St.-Gilloise’s players →
Celta Vigo›
vs
Thu, Nov 5 · 08:00 PM UTC
Union St.-Gilloise›
What is at stake
Europa League connects clubs from different domestic leagues.

Check the phase before reading the score: league-phase points, two-leg aggregate scores and one-match knockouts create different incentives.

Model view
39%
27%
34%
CVDrawUS
expected goals
1.42–1.29
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
CV ↓US →
012340
7
9
6
2
1
1
9
12
8
3
1
2
7
9
6
2
1
3
3
4
3
1
0
4
1
1
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
CV
ATT XG-0.41
DEF XGA+0.40
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
US
ATT XG-0.10
DEF XGA+0.59
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG
Europa League · League phase · 2026-27
CV v US
Recognise Celta Vigo’s players →Recognise Union St.-Gilloise’s players →
Celta Vigo›
vs
Thu, Nov 5 · 08:00 PM UTC
Union St.-Gilloise›
What is at stake
Europa League connects clubs from different domestic leagues.

Check the phase before reading the score: league-phase points, two-leg aggregate scores and one-match knockouts create different incentives.

Model view
39%
27%
34%
CVDrawUS
expected goals
1.42–1.29
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
CV ↓US →
012340
7
9
6
2
1
1
9
12
8
3
1
2
7
9
6
2
1
3
3
4
3
1
0
4
1
1
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
CV
ATT XG-0.41
DEF XGA+0.40
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
US
ATT XG-0.10
DEF XGA+0.59
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG