◆
MPFC
⚙
WED, OCT 21
Europa League · League phase · 2026-27
BL v OM
Recognise Bayer Leverkusen’s players →Recognise Olympique Marseille’s players →
Bayer Leverkusen›
vs
Thu, Nov 5 · 08:00 PM UTC
Olympique Marseille›
What is at stake
Europa League connects clubs from different domestic leagues.

Check the phase before reading the score: league-phase points, two-leg aggregate scores and one-match knockouts create different incentives.

Model view
56%
22%
22%
BLDrawOM
expected goals
2.09–1.27
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
BL ↓OM →
012340
3
4
3
1
0
1
7
9
6
2
1
2
8
10
6
3
1
3
5
7
4
2
1
4
3
4
2
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
BL
ATT XG+0.83
DEF XGA+0.99
FORM+1.67
AVAIL0.00
OM
ATT XG+0.36
DEF XGA+0.32
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG
Europa League · League phase · 2026-27
BL v OM
Recognise Bayer Leverkusen’s players →Recognise Olympique Marseille’s players →
Bayer Leverkusen›
vs
Thu, Nov 5 · 08:00 PM UTC
Olympique Marseille›
What is at stake
Europa League connects clubs from different domestic leagues.

Check the phase before reading the score: league-phase points, two-leg aggregate scores and one-match knockouts create different incentives.

Model view
56%
22%
22%
BLDrawOM
expected goals
2.09–1.27
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
BL ↓OM →
012340
3
4
3
1
0
1
7
9
6
2
1
2
8
10
6
3
1
3
5
7
4
2
1
4
3
4
2
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
BL
ATT XG+0.83
DEF XGA+0.99
FORM+1.67
AVAIL0.00
OM
ATT XG+0.36
DEF XGA+0.32
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG