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MPFC
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WED, OCT 21
Europa League · League phase · 2026-27
SP v AB
Recognise Sparta Prague’s players →Recognise AFC Bournemouth’s players →
Sparta Prague›
vs
Thu, Nov 5 · 05:45 PM UTC
AFC Bournemouth›
What is at stake
Europa League connects clubs from different domestic leagues.

Check the phase before reading the score: league-phase points, two-leg aggregate scores and one-match knockouts create different incentives.

Model view
61%
19%
20%
SPDrawAB
expected goals
2.51–1.39
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
SP ↓AB →
012340
2
3
2
1
0
1
5
7
5
2
1
2
6
9
6
3
1
3
5
7
5
2
1
4
3
5
3
1
1
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
SP
ATT XG+1.93
DEF XGA+0.86
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
AB
ATT XG+0.59
DEF XGA+0.50
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG
Europa League · League phase · 2026-27
SP v AB
Recognise Sparta Prague’s players →Recognise AFC Bournemouth’s players →
Sparta Prague›
vs
Thu, Nov 5 · 05:45 PM UTC
AFC Bournemouth›
What is at stake
Europa League connects clubs from different domestic leagues.

Check the phase before reading the score: league-phase points, two-leg aggregate scores and one-match knockouts create different incentives.

Model view
61%
19%
20%
SPDrawAB
expected goals
2.51–1.39
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
SP ↓AB →
012340
2
3
2
1
0
1
5
7
5
2
1
2
6
9
6
3
1
3
5
7
5
2
1
4
3
5
3
1
1
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
SP
ATT XG+1.93
DEF XGA+0.86
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
AB
ATT XG+0.59
DEF XGA+0.50
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG