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MPFC
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WED, OCT 21
Europa League · League phase · 2026-27
RS v OL
Real Sociedad›
vs
Thu, Nov 5 · 05:45 PM UTC
Olympique Lyonnais›
What is at stake
Europa League connects clubs from different domestic leagues.

Check the phase before reading the score: league-phase points, two-leg aggregate scores and one-match knockouts create different incentives.

Model view
39%
25%
36%
RSDrawOL
expected goals
1.59–1.55
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
RS ↓OL →
012340
4
7
5
3
1
1
7
11
8
4
2
2
5
8
7
3
1
3
3
4
3
2
1
4
1
2
1
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
RS
ATT XG+0.15
DEF XGA-0.16
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
OL
ATT XG+0.15
DEF XGA+0.77
FORM+1.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG
Europa League · League phase · 2026-27
RS v OL
Real Sociedad›
vs
Thu, Nov 5 · 05:45 PM UTC
Olympique Lyonnais›
What is at stake
Europa League connects clubs from different domestic leagues.

Check the phase before reading the score: league-phase points, two-leg aggregate scores and one-match knockouts create different incentives.

Model view
39%
25%
36%
RSDrawOL
expected goals
1.59–1.55
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
RS ↓OL →
012340
4
7
5
3
1
1
7
11
8
4
2
2
5
8
7
3
1
3
3
4
3
2
1
4
1
2
1
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
RS
ATT XG+0.15
DEF XGA-0.16
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
OL
ATT XG+0.15
DEF XGA+0.77
FORM+1.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG