◆
MPFC
⚙
WED, OCT 21
Europa League · League phase · 2026-27
LS v JB
Recognise Levski Sofia’s players →Recognise Jagiellonia Bialystok’s players →
Levski Sofia›
vs
Thu, Nov 5 · 05:45 PM UTC
Jagiellonia Bialystok›
What is at stake
Europa League connects clubs from different domestic leagues.

Check the phase before reading the score: league-phase points, two-leg aggregate scores and one-match knockouts create different incentives.

Model view
29%
31%
40%
LSDrawJB
expected goals
0.94–1.16
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
LS ↓JB →
012340
12
14
8
3
1
1
12
13
8
3
1
2
5
6
4
1
0
3
2
2
1
0
0
4
0
0
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
LS
ATT XG-1.95
DEF XGA+1.03
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
JB
ATT XG+0.05
DEF XGA-0.72
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG
Europa League · League phase · 2026-27
LS v JB
Recognise Levski Sofia’s players →Recognise Jagiellonia Bialystok’s players →
Levski Sofia›
vs
Thu, Nov 5 · 05:45 PM UTC
Jagiellonia Bialystok›
What is at stake
Europa League connects clubs from different domestic leagues.

Check the phase before reading the score: league-phase points, two-leg aggregate scores and one-match knockouts create different incentives.

Model view
29%
31%
40%
LSDrawJB
expected goals
0.94–1.16
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
LS ↓JB →
012340
12
14
8
3
1
1
12
13
8
3
1
2
5
6
4
1
0
3
2
2
1
0
0
4
0
0
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
LS
ATT XG-1.95
DEF XGA+1.03
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
JB
ATT XG+0.05
DEF XGA-0.72
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG