Europa League · League phase · 2026-27
What happened
NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Levski Sofia.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
NNDrawLS
expected goals
1.61–0.56
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 25% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
NN ↓LS →
012340
11
6
2
0
0
118
10
3
1
0
215
8
2
0
0
38
4
1
0
0
43
2
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
NN
ATT XG-0.08
DEF XGA-0.59
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
LS
ATT XG-1.95
DEF XGA+1.03
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG