Europa League · League phase · 2026-27
What happened
AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Hapoel Be'er.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
AADrawHB
expected goals
0.62–0.41
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 34% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
AA ↓HB →
012340
36
15
3
0
0
122
9
2
0
0
27
3
1
0
0
31
1
0
0
0
40
0
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
AA
ATT XG-0.09
DEF XGA+0.78
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
HB
ATT XG-1.65
DEF XGA+1.69
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG