◆
MPFC
⚙
WED, OCT 21
Champions League · League phase · 2026-27
AA v GAL
AEK Athens›
vs
Tue, Dec 8 · 08:00 PM UTC
Galatasaray›
What is at stake
Champions League connects clubs from different domestic leagues.

Check the phase before reading the score: league-phase points, two-leg aggregate scores and one-match knockouts create different incentives.

Model view
46%
29%
25%
AADrawGAL
expected goals
1.39–0.98
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
AA ↓GAL →
012340
9
9
4
1
0
1
13
13
6
2
0
2
9
9
4
1
0
3
4
4
2
1
0
4
1
1
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
AA
ATT XG-1.11
DEF XGA+1.63
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
GAL
ATT XG+0.02
DEF XGA-0.06
FORM-1.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG
Champions League · League phase · 2026-27
AA v GAL
AEK Athens›
vs
Tue, Dec 8 · 08:00 PM UTC
Galatasaray›
What is at stake
Champions League connects clubs from different domestic leagues.

Check the phase before reading the score: league-phase points, two-leg aggregate scores and one-match knockouts create different incentives.

Model view
46%
29%
25%
AADrawGAL
expected goals
1.39–0.98
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
AA ↓GAL →
012340
9
9
4
1
0
1
13
13
6
2
0
2
9
9
4
1
0
3
4
4
2
1
0
4
1
1
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
AA
ATT XG-1.11
DEF XGA+1.63
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
GAL
ATT XG+0.02
DEF XGA-0.06
FORM-1.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG