◆
MPFC
⚙
WED, OCT 21
Champions League · League phase · 2026-27
SD v FEN
Shakhtar Donetsk›
vs
Wed, Nov 25 · 08:00 PM UTC
Fenerbahce›
What is at stake
Champions League connects clubs from different domestic leagues.

Check the phase before reading the score: league-phase points, two-leg aggregate scores and one-match knockouts create different incentives.

Model view
74%
17%
9%
SDDrawFEN
expected goals
2.47–0.78
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
SD ↓FEN →
012340
4
3
1
0
0
1
10
7
3
1
0
2
12
9
4
1
0
3
10
8
3
1
0
4
6
5
2
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
SD
ATT XG+0.24
DEF XGA+1.40
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
FEN
ATT XG-0.88
DEF XGA-0.74
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG
Champions League · League phase · 2026-27
SD v FEN
Shakhtar Donetsk›
vs
Wed, Nov 25 · 08:00 PM UTC
Fenerbahce›
What is at stake
Champions League connects clubs from different domestic leagues.

Check the phase before reading the score: league-phase points, two-leg aggregate scores and one-match knockouts create different incentives.

Model view
74%
17%
9%
SDDrawFEN
expected goals
2.47–0.78
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
SD ↓FEN →
012340
4
3
1
0
0
1
10
7
3
1
0
2
12
9
4
1
0
3
10
8
3
1
0
4
6
5
2
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
SD
ATT XG+0.24
DEF XGA+1.40
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
FEN
ATT XG-0.88
DEF XGA-0.74
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG