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MPFC
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WED, OCT 21
Champions League · League phase · 2026-27
VIL v PSG
Villarreal›
vs
Tue, Nov 3 · 08:00 PM UTC
Paris Saint-Germain›
What is at stake
Champions League connects clubs from different domestic leagues.

Check the phase before reading the score: league-phase points, two-leg aggregate scores and one-match knockouts create different incentives.

Model view
30%
22%
48%
VILDrawPSG
expected goals
1.66–2.13
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
VIL ↓PSG →
012340
2
5
5
4
2
1
4
8
9
6
3
2
3
7
7
5
3
3
2
4
4
3
1
4
1
2
2
1
1
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
VIL
ATT XG+0.30
DEF XGA+0.04
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
PSG
ATT XG+1.76
DEF XGA+1.21
FORM+1.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG
Champions League · League phase · 2026-27
VIL v PSG
Villarreal›
vs
Tue, Nov 3 · 08:00 PM UTC
Paris Saint-Germain›
What is at stake
Champions League connects clubs from different domestic leagues.

Check the phase before reading the score: league-phase points, two-leg aggregate scores and one-match knockouts create different incentives.

Model view
30%
22%
48%
VILDrawPSG
expected goals
1.66–2.13
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
VIL ↓PSG →
012340
2
5
5
4
2
1
4
8
9
6
3
2
3
7
7
5
3
3
2
4
4
3
1
4
1
2
2
1
1
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
VIL
ATT XG+0.30
DEF XGA+0.04
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
PSG
ATT XG+1.76
DEF XGA+1.21
FORM+1.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG