Champions League · League phase · 2026-27
What happened
VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Atlético Madrid.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
VSDrawAM
expected goals
1.85–1.46
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 24% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
VS ↓AM →
012340
4
5
4
2
1
17
10
7
4
1
26
9
7
3
1
34
6
4
2
1
42
3
2
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
VS
ATT XG+0.44
DEF XGA+0.71
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
AM
ATT XG+0.65
DEF XGA+0.88
FORM+1.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG