Champions League · League phase · 2026-27
What happened
FC Porto 0–1 PSV Eindhoven.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
FPDrawPE
expected goals
2.29–1.46
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 23% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
FP ↓PE →
012340
2
3
3
1
0
15
8
6
3
1
26
9
7
3
1
35
7
5
2
1
43
4
3
1
1
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
FP
ATT XG+0.56
DEF XGA+1.59
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
PE
ATT XG+1.63
DEF XGA+0.31
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG