Champions League · League phase · 2026-27
What happened
Manchester City 2–4 Paris Saint-Germain.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
MCIDrawPSG
expected goals
2.11–1.57
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 28% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
MCI ↓PSG →
012340
3
4
3
2
1
15
8
7
3
1
26
9
7
4
1
34
6
5
3
1
42
3
3
1
1
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
MCI
ATT XG+1.43
DEF XGA+1.03
FORM+1.00
AVAIL0.00
PSG
ATT XG+1.76
DEF XGA+1.21
FORM+1.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG