Categoría Primera A · Clausura · 2026
What happened
Millonarios 1–1 Once Caldas.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
MILDrawOC
expected goals
1.95–1.14
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 23% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
MIL ↓OC →
012340
5
5
3
1
0
19
10
6
2
1
29
10
6
2
1
36
6
4
1
0
43
3
2
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
MIL
ATT XG+0.26
DEF XGA+1.00
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
OC
ATT XG-0.04
DEF XGA+0.61
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG