Categoría Primera A · Clausura · 2026
What happened
Independiente Medellín 0–2 Once Caldas.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
IMDrawOC
expected goals
1.93–1.37
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 27% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
IM ↓OC →
012340
4
5
3
2
1
17
10
7
3
1
27
9
6
3
1
34
6
4
2
1
42
3
2
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
IM
ATT XG+0.01
DEF XGA+0.02
FORM-0.67
AVAIL0.00
OC
ATT XG-0.03
DEF XGA+0.57
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG