Argentine Primera División · 2026
What happened
Sarmiento (Junín) 1–1 Barracas Central.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
S(DrawBC
expected goals
1.30–1.04
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 29% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
S( ↓BC →
012340
10
10
5
2
0
113
13
7
2
1
28
8
4
2
0
34
4
2
1
0
41
1
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
S(
ATT XG-0.11
DEF XGA+0.16
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
BC
ATT XG-0.90
DEF XGA+1.32
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG