Argentine Primera División · 2026
What happened
Belgrano (Córdoba) 0–3 River Plate.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
B(DrawRP
expected goals
1.35–0.93
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 25% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
B( ↓RP →
012340
10
10
4
1
0
114
13
6
2
0
29
9
4
1
0
34
4
2
1
0
41
1
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
B(
ATT XG-0.43
DEF XGA+1.66
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
RP
ATT XG+0.34
DEF XGA+1.05
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG