Argentine Primera División · 2026
What happened
Unión (Santa Fe) 0–2 Defensa y Justicia.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
U(FDrawDYJ
expected goals
1.97–1.62
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 32% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
U(F ↓DYJ →
012340
3
4
4
2
1
15
9
7
4
2
25
9
7
4
2
34
6
5
2
1
42
3
2
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
U(F
ATT XG+0.27
DEF XGA-0.49
FORM-1.33
AVAIL0.00
DYJ
ATT XG+0.04
DEF XGA+0.45
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG