Argentine Primera División · 2026
What happened
Instituto (Córdoba) 2–2 Boca Juniors.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
I(DrawBJ
expected goals
1.30–1.20
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 28% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
I( ↓BJ →
012340
8
10
6
2
1
111
13
8
3
1
27
8
5
2
1
33
4
2
1
0
41
1
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
I(
ATT XG-0.08
DEF XGA+1.25
FORM+1.33
AVAIL0.00
BJ
ATT XG+0.55
DEF XGA+1.10
FORM+1.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG