Eredivisie · 2026-27
What happened
FC Groningen 2–5 Ajax Amsterdam.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
FGDrawAA
expected goals
1.52–1.42
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 35% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
FG ↓AA →
012340
5
8
5
3
1
18
11
8
4
1
26
9
6
3
1
33
4
3
1
1
41
2
1
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
FG
ATT XG+0.18
DEF XGA-0.26
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
AA
ATT XG+0.32
DEF XGA+0.58
FORM+1.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG