Eredivisie · 2026-27
What happened
Excelsior 1–5 FC Groningen.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
EXCDrawFG
expected goals
1.60–1.31
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 31% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
EXC ↓FG →
012340
5
7
5
2
1
19
11
7
3
1
27
9
6
3
1
34
5
3
1
0
41
2
1
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
EXC
ATT XG-0.23
DEF XGA-0.48
FORM-1.00
AVAIL0.00
FG
ATT XG+0.18
DEF XGA-0.27
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG