Eredivisie · 2026-27
What happened
Ajax Amsterdam 1–1 NEC Nijmegen.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
AADrawNN
expected goals
1.96–1.28
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 23% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
AA ↓NN →
012340
4
5
3
1
0
18
10
6
3
1
28
10
6
3
1
35
6
4
2
1
42
3
2
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
AA
ATT XG+0.32
DEF XGA+0.58
FORM+1.00
AVAIL0.00
NN
ATT XG-0.08
DEF XGA-0.59
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG