◆
MPFC
⚙
WED, OCT 21
Primeira Liga · 2026-27
ALV v ARO
Recognise Alverca’s players →Recognise Arouca’s players →
Alverca›
vs
Sat, Oct 24 · 05:00 PM UTC
Arouca›
What is at stake
Three points are available in the Primeira Liga.

A win is worth three points and a draw one. The meaning of this match comes from the title race, qualification places and relegation fight around it.

Model view
36%
27%
37%
ALVDrawARO
expected goals
1.34–1.37
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
ALV ↓ARO →
012340
7
9
6
3
1
1
9
12
8
4
1
2
6
8
6
3
1
3
3
4
3
1
0
4
1
1
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
ALV
ATT XG-0.34
DEF XGA+0.31
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
ARO
ATT XG+0.06
DEF XGA+0.67
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG
Primeira Liga · 2026-27
ALV v ARO
Recognise Alverca’s players →Recognise Arouca’s players →
Alverca›
vs
Sat, Oct 24 · 05:00 PM UTC
Arouca›
What is at stake
Three points are available in the Primeira Liga.

A win is worth three points and a draw one. The meaning of this match comes from the title race, qualification places and relegation fight around it.

Model view
36%
27%
37%
ALVDrawARO
expected goals
1.34–1.37
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
ALV ↓ARO →
012340
7
9
6
3
1
1
9
12
8
4
1
2
6
8
6
3
1
3
3
4
3
1
0
4
1
1
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
ALV
ATT XG-0.34
DEF XGA+0.31
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
ARO
ATT XG+0.06
DEF XGA+0.67
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG