Primeira Liga · 2026-27
What happened
FC Famalicao 1–4 Alverca.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
FFDrawALV
expected goals
1.43–0.77
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 19% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
FF ↓ALV →
012340
11
9
3
1
0
116
12
5
1
0
211
9
3
1
0
35
4
2
0
0
42
1
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
FF
ATT XG-0.50
DEF XGA+1.08
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
ALV
ATT XG-0.34
DEF XGA+0.31
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG