Primeira Liga · 2026-27
What happened
Rio Ave 3–2 C.D. Nacional.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
RADrawCN
expected goals
1.09–1.23
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 32% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
RA ↓CN →
012340
10
12
7
3
1
111
13
8
3
1
26
7
4
2
1
32
3
2
1
0
41
1
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
RA
ATT XG-1.29
DEF XGA-1.13
FORM-0.67
AVAIL0.00
CN
ATT XG-0.94
DEF XGA-0.68
FORM-1.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG