Championship · 2026-27
What happened
Southampton 0–0 Bolton Wanderers.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
SOUDrawBW
expected goals
2.32–1.10
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 20% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
SOU ↓BW →
012340
3
4
2
1
0
18
8
5
2
0
29
10
5
2
1
37
7
4
2
0
44
4
2
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
SOU
ATT XG+0.54
DEF XGA+0.67
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
BW
ATT XG-0.78
DEF XGA-0.08
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG