Championship · 2026-27
What happened
Derby County 0–1 Stoke City.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
DCDrawSC
expected goals
1.56–1.15
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 27% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
DC ↓SC →
012340
7
8
4
2
0
110
12
7
3
1
28
9
5
2
1
34
5
3
1
0
42
2
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
DC
ATT XG-0.44
DEF XGA+0.26
FORM-1.00
AVAIL0.00
SC
ATT XG-0.61
DEF XGA+0.19
FORM+1.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG