Championship · 2026-27
What happened
Millwall 2–2 Lincoln City.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
MILDrawLC
expected goals
1.52–0.67
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 27% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
MIL ↓LC →
012340
11
7
3
1
0
117
11
4
1
0
213
9
3
1
0
37
4
1
0
0
42
2
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
MIL
ATT XG+0.32
DEF XGA+1.06
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
LC
ATT XG-0.90
DEF XGA+0.70
FORM-0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG