Championship · 2026-27
What happened
Middlesbrough 2–2 Cardiff City.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
MIDDrawCC
expected goals
2.34–1.20
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 20% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
MID ↓CC →
012340
3
3
2
1
0
17
8
5
2
1
28
10
6
2
1
36
7
4
2
1
44
4
3
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
MID
ATT XG+0.76
DEF XGA+0.75
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
CC
ATT XG+0.11
DEF XGA-0.46
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG