Championship · 2026-27
What happened
Queens Park Rangers 4–1 Derby County.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
QPRDrawDC
expected goals
1.16–1.27
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 33% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
QPR ↓DC →
012340
9
11
7
3
1
110
13
8
3
1
26
8
5
2
1
32
3
2
1
0
41
1
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
QPR
ATT XG-0.67
DEF XGA+0.02
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
DC
ATT XG-0.44
DEF XGA+0.26
FORM-1.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG