Championship · 2026-27
What happened
Norwich City 0–1 Southampton.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
NCDrawSOU
expected goals
1.87–1.60
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 33% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
NC ↓SOU →
012340
3
5
4
2
1
16
9
7
4
2
25
9
7
4
1
33
5
4
2
1
42
3
2
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
NC
ATT XG+0.43
DEF XGA+0.41
FORM-1.67
AVAIL0.00
SOU
ATT XG+0.54
DEF XGA+0.67
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG