Championship · 2026-27
What happened
Millwall 0–1 Swansea City.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
MILDrawSC
expected goals
1.32–1.13
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 31% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
MIL ↓SC →
012340
9
10
6
2
1
111
13
7
3
1
28
8
5
2
1
33
4
2
1
0
41
1
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
MIL
ATT XG+0.32
DEF XGA+1.06
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
SC
ATT XG+0.15
DEF XGA+1.64
FORM+1.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG