Championship · 2026-27
What happened
Derby County 1–1 Wrexham.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
DCDrawWRE
expected goals
1.51–1.27
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 27% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
DC ↓WRE →
012340
6
8
5
2
1
19
12
8
3
1
27
9
6
2
1
34
5
3
1
0
41
2
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
DC
ATT XG-0.44
DEF XGA+0.26
FORM-1.00
AVAIL0.00
WRE
ATT XG+0.01
DEF XGA+0.41
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG