Championship · 2026-27
What happened
Bolton Wanderers 1–2 Stoke City.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
BWDrawSC
expected goals
1.51–1.30
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 32% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
BW ↓SC →
012340
6
8
5
2
1
19
12
8
3
1
27
9
6
3
1
33
4
3
1
0
41
2
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
BW
ATT XG-0.77
DEF XGA-0.07
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
SC
ATT XG-0.58
DEF XGA+0.21
FORM+1.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG