Championship · 2026-27
What happened
Norwich City 3–4 Bolton Wanderers.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
NCDrawBW
expected goals
2.29–0.75
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 10% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
NC ↓BW →
012340
5
4
1
0
0
111
8
3
1
0
213
9
4
1
0
310
7
3
1
0
45
4
2
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
NC
ATT XG+0.35
DEF XGA+0.41
FORM-1.67
AVAIL0.00
BW
ATT XG-0.77
DEF XGA-0.07
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG