Bundesliga · 2026-27
What happened
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–2 TSG Hoffenheim.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
BMDrawTH
expected goals
1.80–1.74
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 37% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
BM ↓TH →
012340
3
5
4
3
1
15
9
8
5
2
25
8
7
4
2
33
5
4
2
1
41
2
2
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
BM
ATT XG-0.58
DEF XGA-0.64
FORM-1.67
AVAIL0.00
TH
ATT XG+0.29
DEF XGA-0.49
FORM-1.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG