Bundesliga · 2026-27
What happened
Werder Bremen 2–2 SC Paderborn 07.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
WBDrawSP0
expected goals
1.34–0.66
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 30% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
WB ↓SP0 →
012340
14
9
3
1
0
118
12
4
1
0
212
8
3
1
0
35
4
1
0
0
42
1
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
WB
ATT XG-0.53
DEF XGA-0.46
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
SP0
ATT XG-1.51
DEF XGA+0.43
FORM-0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG