Bundesliga · 2026-27
What happened
Schalke 04 0–1 1. FSV Mainz 05.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
S0Draw1FM
expected goals
1.24–1.13
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 33% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
S0 ↓1FM →
012340
9
11
6
2
1
112
13
7
3
1
27
8
5
2
0
33
3
2
1
0
41
1
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
S0
ATT XG-1.57
DEF XGA+1.29
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
1FM
ATT XG+0.21
DEF XGA-0.01
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG