Bundesliga · 2026-27
What happened
Hamburg SV 1–0 VfB Stuttgart.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
HSDrawVS
expected goals
1.30–1.88
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 26% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
HS ↓VS →
012340
4
8
7
5
2
15
10
10
6
3
24
7
6
4
2
32
3
3
2
1
40
1
1
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
HS
ATT XG-0.76
DEF XGA-0.52
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
VS
ATT XG+0.44
DEF XGA+0.71
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG