Bundesliga · 2026-27
What happened
1. FC Union Berlin 0–0 Borussia Dortmund.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
1FUDrawBD
expected goals
1.26–1.87
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 24% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
1FU ↓BD →
012340
4
8
8
5
2
16
10
10
6
3
23
6
6
4
2
31
3
3
2
1
40
1
1
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
1FU
ATT XG-0.77
DEF XGA-0.39
FORM-0.67
AVAIL0.00
BD
ATT XG+0.58
DEF XGA+0.95
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG