La Liga · 2026-27
What happened
Valencia 0–0 Athletic Bilbao.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
VALDrawAB
expected goals
1.38–1.18
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 28% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
VAL ↓AB →
012340
8
9
5
2
1
111
13
7
3
1
27
9
5
2
1
33
4
2
1
0
41
1
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
VAL
ATT XG-0.67
DEF XGA+0.41
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
AB
ATT XG-0.48
DEF XGA+0.84
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG