La Liga · 2026-27
What happened
Rayo Vallecano 0–0 Athletic Bilbao.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
RVDrawAB
expected goals
1.53–1.20
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 27% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
RV ↓AB →
012340
7
8
5
2
1
110
12
7
3
1
28
9
5
2
1
34
5
3
1
0
41
2
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
RV
ATT XG-0.41
DEF XGA+0.45
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
AB
ATT XG-0.48
DEF XGA+0.84
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG