La Liga · 2026-27
What happened
Valencia 2–3 Real Sociedad.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
VALDrawRS
expected goals
1.60–1.25
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 29% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
VAL ↓RS →
012340
6
7
5
2
1
19
12
7
3
1
27
9
6
2
1
34
5
3
1
0
42
2
1
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
VAL
ATT XG-0.67
DEF XGA+0.41
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
RS
ATT XG+0.15
DEF XGA-0.16
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG