La Liga · 2026-27
What happened
Atlético Madrid 2–1 Real Madrid.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
AMDrawRMA
expected goals
1.71–1.73
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 38% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
AM ↓RMA →
012340
3
6
5
3
1
15
9
8
5
2
25
8
7
4
2
33
5
4
2
1
41
2
2
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
AM
ATT XG+0.65
DEF XGA+0.88
FORM+1.33
AVAIL0.00
RMA
ATT XG+1.51
DEF XGA+1.26
FORM+1.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG